FalcoColumbarius wrote:
Okey..... I go out and toy with my trailer and I see I need to catch up here.... Ehem....
So, let's start with the license plate in the car park scenario. We are not talking about coming into the car park and seeing ARW 357... of course that is not unique by any standard. What we are talking about is coming into the car park and seeing three license plates with ARW 357, one from BC, One from the Yukon and one from Quebec ~ and they're all lined up in a row. If I saw that I would take note: Could it be by chance? That's possible. Could it be somehow arranged? Probably more likely ~ even if it was chance that they happened to be there but decided to park next to one and other like Delicas.
Actually, that is exactly what we are talking about. The argument that 3 cars with the same plate could not come together by chance is the same argument that the Creationists use to suggest that the world was "intelligently designed" by a creator.
Just because you have seen something improbable does not mean that it had a specific cause. Again, correlation does not imply causation! This is a critical point. To ignore it is to descend down the path to pseudoscience. So, Feynman's point about licence plates holds exactly, in fact, it is exactly what he meant and why I quoted it.
Correlation gives you cause to investigate further - it does NOT give you cause to draw a conclusion from the data set at hand!
FalcoColumbarius wrote:
All I'm saying is three ancient calendars from three different places ending at the same time... Not ending in the same century but the same year and the solar system is lining up at the same time... You bet I see a pattern there. I also see a pattern when I look at my engine... co-incidence? Perhaps all the parts of my engine just arrived together by chance at the same time but I am more likely going with intelligent design on that one.
You can find patterns everywhere you look. And so what if the solar system lines up? Lots of celestial things happen all the time! People always seem to attribute the way certain bodies move in the heavens as relevant to their own lives - when of course, they are not. The solar system does not give a whit about our lives - and it is not even likely to be able to care. It is a bunch of inanimate matter moving around according to newtonian mechanics! (Perhilion advance of mercury and relativity included here for those who like to nitpick.)
FalcoColumbarius wrote:
I am not saying that the Earth is going to blow up because these calendars correlate but it tells me that there might be a reason for this "phenomenon".
Regarding the Bible Prophesy: Are you referring to Revelations? If so ~ early on into Revelations, Saint John The Divine clearly states that this event is going to take place during his lifetime.
I am referring to the bestselling book "88 reasons the Rapture will happen in 1988" Huge bestseller. Everyone has totally forgotten it.
As per the Bible, Jesus himself says that the kingdom of heaven will come in his own generation - "some of those standing here will not taste death before it arrives". But, I have no belief in the Bible apart from a fascinating book of literature.
FalcoColumbarius wrote:
There are many hoaxes out there, I am with you on this point. However we should not "throw the baby out with the bath water" just because the water is very dirty. These hoaxes, I might add, are not new ~ scams have been going on since the dawn of whatever.
When my wife (at the time) was pregnant with my son... I was absolutely amazed at how many pregnant women were in London that year ~ I understand that it was on my plate and I was more aware of it when in fact there was probably just as many pregnant women in London that year as the year before or the year after. I am also aware that when people are in dire straits they look for something to blame, which is often how conspiracy theories hatch. But I also know that where you have people you have politics and where there is politics there is the potential for conspiring.
We should absolutely throw the baby out with the bath water!
Why?
Because there is no evidence for any of these things - to simply rely on blind conjecture without proof is akin to following voodoo or similar things.
This internet we are typing on, our delicas, modern medicine and medical cures, longer lifespans - everything that makes our life better than our ancestors is based on a process of thought known as science. This scientific method can be distilled down into a set of rules that I listed on this thread before. These rules have been validated for about 3000 years since first starting to appear from the Greeks.
These rules suggest that we throw the baby out with the bath water until further evidence says otherwise. If further evidence suggest that we need to do more tests? Then we do more tests.
To stray from this process is exactly what leads to all the hoxes and pseudoscience - like the horrific woman Jenny McCarthy who supports "Vaccines Cause Autism". What a crone. Children have *DIED*. *DIED*!!! Think about that! Children died because this woman did not know to follow the critical thinking rules and promoted a hoax.
I think we need to throw those ideas out, bad thinking kills people.
FalcoColumbarius wrote:
I agree fully completely with you on the point of finding what one looks for ~ "seek and thee shall find" ~ it's called the "Law Of Attraction" but when the core columns all fall down at 56 foot (trailer) lengths and cut at consistent angles with thermite residue all over the place... well you need to ask yourself "am I drawing conclusions into this or is it really a pattern due to intelligent design?"
Now, back to 2012. Does it mean the end times because three ancient calendars are coming to an end? Not necessarily. Could it mean that? Perhaps. Should I rule it out because there are a lot of conspiracy theorists out there? I wouldn't do that. Could the three calendars be "rolling over" together? Absolutely, that is a very plausible concept. In fact the planetary alignment could be the tumblers clicking over. The question is why?
Falco.
Why? Why not? That is a better question! After all, if you think about it, those civilizations already came to an end! Their calendars were way off on that count! Why even attribute anything of signifigance to those calendars at all? It makes as much sense as people attributing signifigance to the number 666 as shown in Revelations, without actually being aware that it represented Emperor Nero, or the fact that the original number was in fact, 616!
But people still give signifigance to this number, blissfully unaware of the original meaning.
So, why even give meaning to outdated calendars? Is there a reason to even give them meaning at all? Especially when the Maya themselves did not even give them the same meaning that modern people do? And, if you are giving them an end of the world meaning, why? Hey, maybe it means when they all come together ice cream will rain down from the sky for all! Just like Manna from heaven! Or maybe there will be a sudden outbreak of peace all across the world, or on the convergence all forms of cancer will be cured by science, or maybe we will suddenly achive cold fusion...
Or not.
I see no reason to give meaning to the value of a sequence of random number, and for the same reason I see no value to give meaning to the convergence of the end of some calendars. It makes no sense to give them an arbitrary meaning.
glenn wrote:
This all points me to Ubuntu. It is an open sourced, community based Linux operating system, that does not have inherent restrictions imposed by the producer. It also does not have obsolescence built into its fundamental corporate model. This means I was able to buy a computer that cost almost $4000 4 years ago for about $300 today, and use it for everything I need. To top it all off, the operating system, and all the software, including analogues for all popular applications are totally free. Tech support is free. Applications are backwards compatible.
I worked for years as a Unix/Linux admin. I was an early adopter of Linux on the Desktop - REALLY early actually. I have a Mythbuntu system for a homebuilt PVR, and I like it.
However, having worked with Linux so long and computers as a profession I no longer see the OS world in such zealotry. Yes, Apple and Microsoft do bad things. However, I only have so much time in my day to devote to a cause.
Therefore, I have an iMac which is my primary home Machine. A windows laptop provided by work. A windows Gaming machine which I use only for playing Team Fortress 2 and other games.
A computer OS is a tool, I select the best tool for the job. I am not up for trying to use a screwdriver when I actually need a hammer.
Having said that, I think Ubuntu is awesome, but always remember: "Linux is only free if your time is worthless."
Doh!